Serenity
Ex-WSB trader turned AI/semiconductor supply-chain analyst. Buys the chokepoints NVIDIA can't do without. 700k+ followers on X.
Latest from X — mentioned tickers
Auto-updated from the latest posts. Today's move shown per ticker.
- Jun 10, 04:07 PMOriginal post ↗
The author notes the broader market sell-off of -3-4% and contrasts it with SNDK's strong performance, questioning if followers are still green this week with long-only portfolios.
- Jun 10, 01:44 PMOriginal post ↗
The author states that optical players LITE, AAOI, and SIVE are recovering from a selloff they consider unjustified, implying a bullish view.
- Jun 10, 10:47 AMOriginal post ↗
Morgan Stanley denies reports that Nvidia's 800V DC product has been delayed, calling the selloff overblown and referencing a prior inaccurate claim about MU's HBM4 share.
- Jun 10, 07:20 AMOriginal post ↗
US institutions like Blackrock, Fidelity, and JP Morgan have taken positions in Sivers (SIVE), validating its photonics technology and signaling accumulation.
- Jun 10, 05:11 AMOriginal post ↗
The post begins with Nvidia as a $5T company, focusing on a forced shift to 800V DC and co-packaged optics (CPO). An analyst expresses doubt about Nvidia's ability to execute on time. The market reacts by selling off everything, but later Nvidia and Lumentum executives counter with bullish statements on CPO, claiming timelines are accelerating. The tone is sarcastic, implying market overreaction.
- Jun 10, 04:29 AMOriginal post ↗
Lumentum management reaffirmed its CPO scale-up timeline at a Mizuho conference, with initial shipments in H2 2027 and volume ramp in 2028. Nvidia's SVP also confirmed no delays to its own CPO mass production in H2 2026. Both companies expressed high confidence in the total addressable market.
- Jun 10, 03:43 AMOriginal post ↗
NVIDIA's networking SVP refutes analyst reports of CPO delays, confirms H2 2026 mass production and customer ramp for co-packaged optics, with strong internal enthusiasm.
- Jun 10, 01:33 AMOriginal post ↗
Industry sources indicate CPO scale-out is ahead of schedule, with Foxconn units and optical switches shipping early to NVDA, while LITE expects Scale-Up optical product shipments in H2 2027 and volume ramp in 2028. NVDA networking SVP confirms CPO ramp in H2 this year. The author contrasts these with a questionable analyst report on MU missing HBM4 for Rubin, which MU later refuted, leading to a triple-digit return. The author sees a buying opportunity in the dip caused by that report.
- Jun 9, 02:57 PMOriginal post ↗
The author believes photonics technology from AAOI, LITE, and SIVE is not disappearing soon, but notes it is extremely volatile.
- Jun 9, 01:54 PMOriginal post ↗
The author highlights a successful volatility expansion trade on $EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF), driven by memory chip concentration risk and bullish moves in SK Hynix and Samsung. They express pride in predicting the index's volatility surge and call it a 'goated' idea with ~383% return.
Featured theses
Highest-conviction calls from recent posts.
Lumentum management reaffirmed its CPO scale-up timeline at a Mizuho conference, with init
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗Lumentum management reaffirmed its CPO scale-up timeline at a Mizuho conference, with initial shipments in H2 2027 and volume ramp in 2028. Nvidia's SVP also confirmed no delays to its own CPO mass production in H2 2026. Both companies expressed high confidence in the total addressable market.
Why: SVP confirmed CPO mass production timeline of H2 2026 with no delays, indicating strong internal alignment and confidence in the technology's readiness and market demand.
Why: Management confirmed no delays to CPO scale-up timeline, with first shipments in H2 2027 and ramp in 2028, aligning with prior guidance; Nvidia SVP also confirmed its own timeline, supporting Lumentum's positioning in the optical supply chain.
The author highlights a successful volatility expansion trade on $EWY (iShares MSCI South
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗The author highlights a successful volatility expansion trade on $EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF), driven by memory chip concentration risk and bullish moves in SK Hynix and Samsung. They express pride in predicting the index's volatility surge and call it a 'goated' idea with ~383% return.
Why: The author mentions SK Hynix as underlying strength driving the EWY trade, implying bullish momentum in the stock itself due to memory chip demand.
Why: Samsung is cited alongside SK Hynix as underlying strength, indicating bullish sentiment for the stock given its role in memory chips.
Why: The author executed a volatility expansion trade on EWY (South Korea ETF) from 32% to 58% IV, achieving ~383% return. They linked this to memory concentration risk and underlying strength in SK Hynix and Samsung, indicating a strong bullish view on the index's volatility and direction.
Morgan Stanley denies reports that Nvidia's 800V DC product has been delayed, calling the
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗Morgan Stanley denies reports that Nvidia's 800V DC product has been delayed, calling the selloff overblown and referencing a prior inaccurate claim about MU's HBM4 share.
Why: Morgan Stanley refutes delay reports, suggesting market overreaction; firm's own checks at Computex contradict bearish claims.
US institutions like Blackrock, Fidelity, and JP Morgan have taken positions in Sivers (SI
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗US institutions like Blackrock, Fidelity, and JP Morgan have taken positions in Sivers (SIVE), validating its photonics technology and signaling accumulation.
Why: Multiple major US institutions (Blackrock, Fidelity, JP Morgan) have entered positions in Sivers, including a 5.25% stake by JP Morgan, validating the company's role in photonics and suggesting accumulation by sophisticated investors.
The post begins with Nvidia as a $5T company, focusing on a forced shift to 800V DC and co
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗The post begins with Nvidia as a $5T company, focusing on a forced shift to 800V DC and co-packaged optics (CPO). An analyst expresses doubt about Nvidia's ability to execute on time. The market reacts by selling off everything, but later Nvidia and Lumentum executives counter with bullish statements on CPO, claiming timelines are accelerating. The tone is sarcastic, implying market overreaction.
Why: Lumentum executives also provide bullish commentary on CPO, indicating accelerating timelines.
NVIDIA's networking SVP refutes analyst reports of CPO delays, confirms H2 2026 mass produ
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗NVIDIA's networking SVP refutes analyst reports of CPO delays, confirms H2 2026 mass production and customer ramp for co-packaged optics, with strong internal enthusiasm.
Why: Author explicitly reiterates bullishness on CPO alongside NVIDIA, citing executive denial of delays and strong internal enthusiasm for near and long term.
Industry sources indicate CPO scale-out is ahead of schedule, with Foxconn units and optic
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗Industry sources indicate CPO scale-out is ahead of schedule, with Foxconn units and optical switches shipping early to NVDA, while LITE expects Scale-Up optical product shipments in H2 2027 and volume ramp in 2028. NVDA networking SVP confirms CPO ramp in H2 this year. The author contrasts these with a questionable analyst report on MU missing HBM4 for Rubin, which MU later refuted, leading to a triple-digit return. The author sees a buying opportunity in the dip caused by that report.
Why: Author dismisses the analyst report claiming MU lost HBM4 share, as MU later confirmed mass production, indicating strong position in HBM4 for Rubin.
Why: Foxconn is shipping early and NVDA's networking SVP confirms CPO ramp in H2 this year, indicating strong demand and production readiness for CPO.
The author clarifies they have no paid promotions, accept no outside compensation, and pos
X / @aleabitoreddit ↗The author clarifies they have no paid promotions, accept no outside compensation, and post supply-chain research as a hobby. They remain anonymous due to past threats after publishing bearish views on $IREN.