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Serenity
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)Serenity@aleabitoredditPost2026-06-09

The author finds Jabil (JBL) compelling at $38B due to its unappreciated 1.6T pluggable tr

The author finds Jabil (JBL) compelling at $38B due to its unappreciated 1.6T pluggable transceiver business, which they believe is more scalable than Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and benefits from taking over Intel's (INTC) pluggable lines. The bottleneck is expected to be SIVE in H1 2027, with massive demand already assured.

Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)
Original postX / @aleabitoreddit

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The author contrasts AAOI's capital-intensive approach (ATMs for laser fabs) unfavorably against JBL's more scalable model, implying potential competitive disadvantage.

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JBL taking over Intel's pluggable lines suggests Intel may have lost a key business line in the transceiver space, but the impact is not fully detailed.

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Massive 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver opportunity, established supply chain, took over Intel's pluggable lines, more scalable than AAOI's capex model, and offers an Innolight-like setup with US premium.

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