The author expresses strong bullish conviction on AAOI, citing scarce laser capacity sough
The author expresses strong bullish conviction on AAOI, citing scarce laser capacity sought by AMD and hyperscalers, a US transceiver supply chain for 800G/1.6T mass production, revenue far exceeding supply, and a massive ARR projection relative to market cap, while acknowledging near-term volatility from ATMs, bearish posts, and early timelines.
“I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.”Original post：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗