Serenity@aleabitoredditPost2026-06-22

The author discusses small equipment monopolies before volume ramps, focusing on LPKF as a

The author discusses small equipment monopolies before volume ramps, focusing on LPKF as a key supplier for glass-core substrates with high customer share.

“As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.”