Serenity@aleabitoredditPost2026-06-29

The author reviews notes from POET's AGM, highlighting a severe shortage of laser supplier

The author reviews notes from POET's AGM, highlighting a severe shortage of laser suppliers, with top three sold out through 2029. POET has a new customer (likely SIVE) for high-power external light source, expects Lumilens agreement to exceed $500M over 5 years, and plans to scale production 10x. The author is cautiously optimistic on POET if projections are met, but notes lack of named hyperscaler customers compared to AAOI.

“Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT) - $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals). - "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components." Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks. - "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year." Just production timelines H2. In terms of $POET volumes: - existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year - projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month - roughly 10x capacity expansion I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive. However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable. But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.”