Serenity@aleabitoredditPost2026-08-01

Lumentum CEO warns of a severe supply chain crisis for InP lasers used in AI data centers,

Lumentum CEO warns of a severe supply chain crisis for InP lasers used in AI data centers, worse than memory constraints, with shipments falling over 30% below demand. The author validates their long-held laser chokepoint thesis involving AAOI, SIVE, LITE, and COHR.

“$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.”