IBK研究关于波士顿动力Atlas机器人价值链的摘要；列出了韩国供应商、产量增长预测（作者提出更快的S曲线）、竞争格局，以及将执行器产能作为关键产量指标。
IBK研究关于波士顿动力Atlas机器人价值链的摘要；列出了韩国供应商、产量增长预测（作者提出更快的S曲线）、竞争格局，以及将执行器产能作为关键产量指标。
“So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators As for humanoid volume ramps: They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032. Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps... Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like: - 15-20k 2028 - 40k-70k 2029 - 90k-140k for 2030 Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026. In terms of competitive landscape they name: - $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now) - Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders. - Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders. They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis. Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now. Then from report assumptions: - 31 actuators per Atlas - $1K per actuator in 2028 - $134K Atlas ASP, Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%. Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots. So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp. I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.”原帖：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗