作者使用Win Semi晶圆产能的10%低端分配模型，预测Sivers可产生3.41亿至5.12亿美元的年阵列收入，按50-60%毛利率计算净利润2.05亿至3.07亿美元，相对于
作者使用Win Semi晶圆产能的10%低端分配模型，预测Sivers可产生3.41亿至5.12亿美元的年阵列收入，按50-60%毛利率计算净利润2.05亿至3.07亿美元，相对于当前约11亿美元市值，2028年市值/毛利比可达3.6-5.4倍。需求侧因CW激光瓶颈强劲（Lumentum公开购买CW、AMD签署长期协议），任何合格产能都可能被吸纳。Morgan Stanley也将Sivers列为三大CPO激光器公司之一（与Coherent和Lumentum并列）。
“Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.”原帖：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗