作者报告本月因大跌导致49.4%的回撤，持仓集中在AI瓶颈和关键节点（光子学、机器人、上游半导体、存储器）。尽管受到嘲讽和散户恐慌，作者坚信结构性收入增长并持有长期视角至2027年
作者报告本月因大跌导致49.4%的回撤，持仓集中在AI瓶颈和关键节点（光子学、机器人、上游半导体、存储器）。尽管受到嘲讽和散户恐慌，作者坚信结构性收入增长并持有长期视角至2027年下半年。
“Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.”原帖：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗