The author critiques retail investors' tendency to anchor on inflated private valuations,
The author critiques retail investors' tendency to anchor on inflated private valuations, using Figure vs. Agility Robotics as a case where scarcity psychology causes overpaying.
“It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor. Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals. We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T. Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?”Original post：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗