The author presents a weekend guide for due diligence on shorting Nebius (NBIS), highlight
The author presents a weekend guide for due diligence on shorting Nebius (NBIS), highlighting strong AI cloud demand from hyperscalers (GOOGL, AMZN, META) and NBIS's own rapid growth metrics, which initially seem bearish for the short thesis. However, they conclude by recommending to short NBIS and go long on Lululemon (LULU), citing a Nike executive's move to LULU as a positive signal.
“Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU”Original post：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗