Serenity@aleabitoredditPost2026-08-09

The author suggests revisiting Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) based on a modeled projection

The author suggests revisiting Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) based on a modeled projection of ~$427M/yr midpoint capacity revenue, citing industry evidence from AAOI and MTSI about a shortage of InP CW DFB lasers and a US proposal to ban Chinese optical transceivers. The bullish thesis is that Sivers, as a laser player, could benefit from the same capacity-demand absorption dynamics as AAOI.

“I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.”