作者对Sivers Semiconductors（$SIVE）和Applied Optoelectronics（$AAOI）持有强烈看涨信念，将价格下跌视为买入机会。关键点：$SI
作者对Sivers Semiconductors（$SIVE）和Applied Optoelectronics（$AAOI）持有强烈看涨信念，将价格下跌视为买入机会。关键点：$SIVE是多个超大规模供应商供应链（CPO、NVLink、1.6T可插拔模块）的激光瓶颈，毛利率约60%，且有纳斯达克上市催化剂；$AAOI有巨大的收入预测（2027年上半年月收入4.71亿美元）和潜在的超大规模客户长期协议。警告空头噪音和瑞典媒体的看空报道。
“oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.”原帖：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗