本文总结了亚马逊、Meta、谷歌和微软2026年合计资本支出指引达到7200-7450亿美元，高于之前的6950-7250亿美元。尽管短期内市场去杠杆，作者中长期看好上游半导体和新
本文总结了亚马逊、Meta、谷歌和微软2026年合计资本支出指引达到7200-7450亿美元，高于之前的6950-7250亿美元。尽管短期内市场去杠杆，作者中长期看好上游半导体和新型云服务，理由包括超大规模计算商的计算短缺和云需求上升。他们以NVDA为例说明过去受益情况，并预期内存、CPU/MLCC、共封装光学、玻璃基板和800V技术等将随着资本支出流入而获得重估。
“As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.”原帖：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗