作者认为，近期光子学和英伟达供应链股票的抛售源于散户恐慌和错误信息，但基本面依然强劲：LITE 产能已排至2029年，AAOI 营收预测未变，IQE 合同不变，AXTI 掌控InP
作者认为，近期光子学和英伟达供应链股票的抛售源于散户恐慌和错误信息，但基本面依然强劲：LITE 产能已排至2029年，AAOI 营收预测未变，IQE 合同不变，AXTI 掌控InP衬底供应，台积电COUPE技术推进中。波动由主题性恐慌驱动，而非公司基本面问题。
“Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.”原帖：X / @aleabitoreddit ↗